Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 144,336
2 Rhode Island 143,335
3 South Dakota 140,382
4 Utah 126,749
5 Tennessee 124,253
6 Arizona 121,100
7 Iowa 117,738
8 Wisconsin 115,878
9 Nebraska 115,489
10 South Carolina 115,225
11 Oklahoma 114,542
12 New Jersey 114,441
13 Arkansas 113,145
14 Delaware 111,827
15 Indiana 111,040
16 Alabama 110,957
17 Illinois 109,425
18 Kansas 108,420
19 Florida 108,332
20 New York 108,006
21 Idaho 107,650
22 Mississippi 106,767
23 Minnesota 106,675
24 Nevada 105,274
25 Montana 104,744
26 Wyoming 103,918
27 Georgia 103,547
28 Kentucky 103,063
29 Massachusetts 102,594
30 Texas 101,815
31 Louisiana 101,459
32 Missouri 100,315
33 Michigan 99,247
34 Connecticut 97,485
35 New Mexico 96,884
36 California 95,942
37 North Carolina 95,707
38 Alaska 95,328
39 Colorado 94,915
40 Pennsylvania 94,328
41 Ohio 94,323
42 West Virginia 90,315
43 Virginia 79,151
44 Maryland 76,121
45 New Hampshire 72,638
46 District of Columbia 69,429
47 Washington 57,636
48 Puerto Rico 53,972
49 Maine 50,452
50 Oregon 47,822
51 Vermont 38,821
52 Hawaii 24,783

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 West Virginia 106
2 Florida 92
3 Colorado 70
4 Louisiana 70
5 North Carolina 62
6 Washington 61
7 Nevada 55
8 Oregon 55
9 Idaho 54
10 New Mexico 52
11 Alaska 50
12 District of Columbia 48
13 Hawaii 47
14 Arizona 45
15 Utah 44
16 Alabama 43
17 Indiana 43
18 Delaware 42
19 Pennsylvania 42
20 Maine 41
21 Illinois 40
22 Oklahoma 39
23 Mississippi 38
24 Michigan 33
25 Missouri 32
26 Kentucky 31
27 New York 31
28 Rhode Island 31
29 Ohio 28
30 Puerto Rico 28
31 Wisconsin 27
32 Tennessee 26
33 Maryland 25
34 Minnesota 24
35 Georgia 22
36 New Jersey 22
37 South Carolina 22
38 Connecticut 20
39 Montana 20
40 North Dakota 20
41 California 19
42 Arkansas 17
43 Massachusetts 16
44 New Hampshire 16
45 Virginia 16
46 Iowa 15
47 Vermont 12
48 Texas 11
49 South Dakota 10
50 Nebraska 8
51 Kansas 0
52 Wyoming 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,951
2 New York 2,713
3 Massachusetts 2,594
4 Rhode Island 2,560
5 Mississippi 2,458
6 Arizona 2,421
7 Connecticut 2,312
8 Louisiana 2,278
9 South Dakota 2,276
10 Alabama 2,275
11 Pennsylvania 2,130
12 Michigan 2,040
13 New Mexico 2,034
14 Indiana 2,024
15 North Dakota 2,024
16 Illinois 1,991
17 Arkansas 1,933
18 Iowa 1,919
19 Georgia 1,900
20 South Carolina 1,890
21 Oklahoma 1,842
22 Nevada 1,814
23 Tennessee 1,809
24 Texas 1,782
25 Kansas 1,755
26 Florida 1,716
27 Delaware 1,705
28 Ohio 1,699
29 District of Columbia 1,606
30 California 1,600
31 Kentucky 1,591
32 Maryland 1,590
33 Missouri 1,576
34 West Virginia 1,560
35 Montana 1,509
36 Wisconsin 1,352
37 Minnesota 1,333
38 Virginia 1,311
39 North Carolina 1,250
40 Wyoming 1,242
41 Nebraska 1,230
42 Idaho 1,170
43 Colorado 1,167
44 New Hampshire 995
45 Puerto Rico 784
46 Washington 765
47 Utah 718
48 Oregon 640
49 Maine 613
50 Alaska 481
51 Vermont 408
52 Hawaii 351

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Kentucky 12
2 Wisconsin 2
3 Florida 1
4 Illinois 1
5 Louisiana 1
6 New York 1
7 Oregon 1
8 Rhode Island 1
9 South Dakota 1
10 Virginia 1
11 Washington 1
12 Alabama 0
13 Alaska 0
14 Arizona 0
15 Arkansas 0
16 California 0
17 Colorado 0
18 Connecticut 0
19 Delaware 0
20 District of Columbia 0
21 Georgia 0
22 Hawaii 0
23 Idaho 0
24 Indiana 0
25 Iowa 0
26 Kansas 0
27 Maine 0
28 Maryland 0
29 Massachusetts 0
30 Michigan 0
31 Minnesota 0
32 Mississippi 0
33 Missouri 0
34 Montana 0
35 Nebraska 0
36 Nevada 0
37 New Hampshire 0
38 New Jersey 0
39 New Mexico 0
40 North Carolina 0
41 North Dakota 0
42 Ohio 0
43 Oklahoma 0
44 Pennsylvania 0
45 Puerto Rico 0
46 South Carolina 0
47 Tennessee 0
48 Texas 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 392,133 1 99
Crowley Colorado 363,966 2 99
Bent Colorado 276,493 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 250,339 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 246,238 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 143,080 192 93
York South Carolina 113,460 987 68
Richland South Carolina 113,412 988 68
Orange California 85,700 2262 28
Pierce Washington 61,143 2833 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,350 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Hancock Georgia 7,922 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,595 1851 41
Richland South Carolina 1,373 2099 33
York South Carolina 1,370 2103 33
Davidson Tennessee 1,370 2104 33
Pierce Washington 769 2730 13

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons